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Commonplace Booking in the Digital Age

I’d like to first observe that, since we created an industrialized society, we have been trying to increase our productivity through planners, todo lists, task trackers, and various sundry mechanisms, each of which has its own style and tradeoffs. After highlighting some of these techniques, and recognizing the variability in workflow, I’ll naturally propose a plugin-based software solution.

The Commonplace Book

Let’s begin with a look at the commonplace book, used by many famously productive folks throughout the Rennaisance and into the late 1800’s.

In 1685 the English Enlightenment philosopher John Locke wrote a treatise in French on commonplace books, translated into English in 1706 as A New Method of Making Common-Place-Books, “in which techniques for entering proverbs, quotations, ideas, speeches were formulated. Locke gave specific advice on how to arrange material by subject and category, using such key topics as love, politics, or religion. Commonplace books, it must be stressed, are not journals, which are chronological and introspective.”[1]

By the early eighteenth century they had become an information management device in which a note-taker stored quotations, observations and definitions. They were used in private households to collate ethical or informative texts, sometimes alongside recipes or medical formulae.

Locke’s method involved creating an index of prefixes for the various subjects that interested him (Pa for “passion”, Ha for “Happiness” which might also collide with “Harmony”, and the like) followed by a growing list of page numbers. To record a note or quote, he’d open to the first available blank page in the book, write down the keyword as a title followed by the note and then append that page number to the prefix in the index. Obviously, if we kept our notes as digital records, we could simply use brute force search for free-associative recall.

Modern Daily (Paper) Planners

Because I’ve done a search for planners, I keep getting interesting ads about them. This experience has been somewhat informative as I’ve noticed a compelling sales pitch: A planner designed for your unique personality, that follows scientific principles learned by psychologists who study productivity. They encourage breaking down large tasks into achievable small ones, similarly divide and conquer time itself through daily, weekly, and monthly pages, and encourage reflection by tracking progress on goals. Really, their marketing says more than I can put into words.

Example: The Panda Planner

Example: Evo Daily Planner

Has (at this time) 4 variants, each based on a personality assessment. Also has a companion app. You can see more examples on their  kickstarter campaign.

Example: The Hero’s Journal

Realizing that more compelling motivation comes from narratives following the classic call to action, quest with allies, face adversity, and triumph, the Hero’s Journal focuses more on encouraging you through telling your story rather than dry task lists.

Modern (Digital) Note/Task Managers

As technology progressed so has our office work. We much more commonly use digital equivalents of file cabinets. That should have decreased the barrier to digital notetaking, as we often find ourselves at a computer when we want to make a note of something.

Example: Evernote

A quite popular piece of software for taking notes that come equipped with cloud storage that synchronizes across 3 different interfaces: mobile, desktop web, and a browser plugin (quite handy for bookmarking content). Their image -> text conversion even enables search across pictures of handwritten sticky notes.

Because Evernote offers some built-in hierarchy (Stacks and Notebooks) and free-form tagging, folks have developed tag conventions that encode Ferris-style Getting Things Done systems:

Examples: Project Management

We have Asana, Monday.com, Jira, etc. All designed to track tasks and help a team of people coordinate. However, after using them at work, some people have brought them home to track their personal projects.

 

Example: reMarkable

Given that people still have a penchant for physically scribing their ideas and they can find themselves away from a computer when thinking (a reasonable methodology to remove distractions), reMarkable offers a digitized tablet that combines paper feel with digital organization.

Example: Digitization of Paper Planners

The Slice planner uses recent advances in image processing to transcribe written text (such as a clock, or cross-through on pre-placed icons for email. The Rocketbook, similarly lets you write freeform on the page and scan it later (with wipe and reuse paper), it tracks the scan using a QR code and has a list of icons along the page bottom that you’d configure for sending images to a cloud service (Google drive, Evernote, Dropbox, etc). Moleskine has an Ellipse Smart Writing product that equips a pen with an IR camera and bluetooth so that it can capture what you write on the page and upload it to a phone or tablet.

 

The Digital Commonplace Book

All of the ideas above have strong merits, otherwise they would not have survived in the marketplace. Each of the approaches above has a specific problem that it addresses, but they also compete with each other across some trade-offs (pen vs digital, task tracking vs free-recall) in the productivity space. Could we organize these examples and unify our approach? I think so!

Let us recognize that digitizing the information brings many benefits not available on paper: hyperlinking, tagging, cloud backup and synchronization across devices, and search. But paper also has utility: the feel of the pen, freeform drawing, lack of batteries. Fortunately that gap seems bridgeable via recent advances in image recognition and processing. Our notes might record various goals: todo lists, toread lists, task lists, deadline reminders, timeslots, ideas for later, brainstorms, etc. Digitization can bring us flexible views across the same data: calendar, kanban, gantt chart, checkbox lists, etc. The psychologists in productivity say we benefit from inspirational quotes, especially those that keep us focused on a goal-at-hand and regular reflections on progress and aptitude (achievable through scheduled prompts).

I propose that we can achieve all of the above with a plugin-based software. We establish an API that records note entries (text, bullet lists, checklists, photos, drawings) together with organizational metadata (tags), and a scheduler. Then we allow plugins to stitch those together for productive functionality. For example: the scheduler could watch for due time tag and then trigger a reminder action for filling out a reflection or alert that a task needs to be marked complete. A scheduler following IFTTT could watch for specific events (creation of a note with a tag) and then take a specific organizational action (set a reminder, upload and extract text, attach to a project). The plugins power a configurable dashboard of views that show the same data in different ways: a tag browser, a note editor, a calendar, a time chart, etc. If we streamline the customization (and somehow avoid overwhelming the user with paralysis of choice) then each person can interact with their material in a way that works for them (or continually seek The One True Way forever).

Our smartphone apps and the examples highlighted above already make incremental steps in the direction I outlined. But they remain as data silos and haven’t agreed on a unifying API, as market competition and the costly organizational efforts of standardization present strong incentives against doing so. They’d each rather do their own thing well, than become a plugin to a larger framework. But I see the pieces scattered, waiting for unification and stronger collaboration.

 

The Capitalist Religion

I was listening to Yuval Harari’s lecture series about his book Sapiens. He classified Capitalism as a religion and convinced me that I had already fully bought in. I’ve been practicing its creed without recognizing it as a religion. I believe we should formalize the religion in order to inform and enlighten the other practitioners.

Major religions often have a supreme good, the capitalists worship Economic Growth. A Capitalist sins when they spend their profits on superfluous luxury. Rather, they should always reinvest profits to further growth, of their business first, with the side effect of growing the economy generally.

The religion has a lower class: the Consumer, who should buy things they don’t need with money they don’t have to impress people they don’t like. They assist Capitalists by consuming the excesses of over-abundant production, increasing the velocity of money, and bolstering economic metrics of activity.

The religion needs an embodiment. I propose creating The First Capitalist Church of Wealth. It also has an associated fraternity: The Spontaneous Order of Free Marketeers. Various Profits spread the the economic lessons. I propose coining Adam Smith and Frédéric Bastiat each the title of Mint (akin to Saint), or perhaps a higher rank such as one of the 12 Accountants (akin to Apostles). I have not yet ordained the the hierarchy.

We have a holy book: The Ledger. It contains various books such as The Book of Acquisitions.

But we don’t speak of The Ledger as just a holy book. Each individual also has a person ledger that tracks their economic contributions (like the chain worn by Ebenezer Scrooge). When a person dies and goes to the Golden Vault, there receive an accounting of their person ledger. If they pass the audit, they may enter the vault. Otherwise, if their economic contributions were net negative, they shall experience an eternal torment of shoddy products and bad service. Various levels of hellish inconvenience await them, as per the magnitude of their debts.

We have a guiding spirit: The Invisible Hand (as coined by Adam Smith), that directs entrepreneurs to generate value for the consumers.

I haven’t worked out yet how one pays penance for their misdeeds and malinvestments. But I think the religion can generate good interest, with membership appreciating the economic growth mindset.

Statistical Measures

In the stats book that I used at college, A First Course in Probability (sixth ed) by Sheldon Ross, I found two problems that seem paradoxical when juxtaposed. Can you explain the opposite results?

Ch 2 Axioms of Probability, Self-Test Exercise #15.

Show that if P(A_i) = 1 for all i\geq1, then P\left(\bigcap\limits_{i=1}^{\infty} A_i\right) = 1.

Ch 5 Continuous Random Variables, Theoretical Exercise #6.

Define a collection of events E_a, 0 < a < 1, having the property that P(E_a) = 1 for all a, but P\left(\bigcap\limits_{a} E_a\right) = 0.
Hint: Let random variable X be uniform over (0,1) and define E_a in terms of X.

Acer Swift 1

I decided to upgrade my laptop, and chose to get the Acer Swift 1 SF113-31-P6XP (the rose gold color). The Acer website indicated that this model would have a keyboard backlight, but it does not. It has 3 stuck pixels and a weird bright spot in the display that looks like a reflection, which I only notice when showing bright colors. Since I changed all my settings over to dark mode, I don’t notice these issues at all.

The laptop itself is slightly underpowered, so occasionally an application will behave as if it got paused for a second. Because my main use case for this device is just surfing the web in bed, I don’t mind that behavior at all, and have come to expect it even on workhorse machines. I blame javascript, plugins, and browser architecture generally. Bonus points: the device has no fan and runs completely silent. I find the trade-off worth it. The N4200 supports bursting up to 2.5GHz and Linux makes good use of that ability. I had no problem streaming videos and playing them full-screen.

My biggest complaint comes from the trackpad, which kept freezing. So, I took some steps to remedy that problem (in Ubuntu).

  1. apt install xserver-xorg-input-synaptics, for some reason this does not install with xserver-xorg-input-all. It’s presence opens up a bunch of configuration options regarding click behavior, scrolling, palm detection, etc.
  2. Create a script that will cycle the touchpad when it freezes and create global keyboard shortcut to run it. If the touchpad freezes, at least you have a button to get it back.
    #!/bin/bash
     
    declare -i ID
    ID=`xinput list | grep -Eio '(touchpad|glidepoint)\s*id\=[0-9]{1,2}' | grep -Eo '[0-9]{1,2}'`
     
    xinput disable $ID
    sleep 0.1
    xinput enable $ID

    I spent a day using this setup and must have hit the cycle button at least 50 times. Though it was quick, it got really annoying.

  3. One time the touchpad didn’t respond after resuming from sleep. So I dug deeper to see if I could virtually unplug and replug it.

    If the touchpad doesn’t come back after using the above script, then you can cycle the responsible kernel module.

    sudo modprobe -r hid_multitouch
    sudo modprobe hid_multitouch
  4. After some more research, I learned that other Acer models had similar issues, but they could be fixed with a change to the bios settings. During bootup press F2 to access the bios, then switch Main > Touchpad from Advanced to Basic.

For the past five days, I have not had to cycle the touchpad (step 2) since changing the bios flag (step 4).

Debunking the Intrinsic Value Argument

I have to admit to having updated my mind about the “intrinsic value” argument that many people cite as a justification for treating gold as a money (vs paper currency). I’ve previously attempted to explain away this argument as a side-effect of other properties[Gold is Money] or to dismiss it as an unrelated feature[The Commodity Money Myth]. Now I have some good reasons to believe that the entire argument is unsound.

First, a conversation that I had with a fellow camper at the Jackalope festival.

Person: Gold is money and Bitcoin only a currency.
Me: Ok, what’s the difference?
Person: Well, money can operate as a store of value.
Me: Interesting, how do you store something subjective?
Person: *mumble something about intrinsic value that I find unconvincing and irrelevant*

If you take the Subjective theory of value seriously, then it’s obvious that “intrinsic value” is an illusion. Gold has held its value for a long time, sure, but that’s because people, individuals, continue to have a high subjective value for that material. I don’t see a big problem expecting similar valuations in the future, but that position says much more about human preferences than it does about a shiny yellowish metal.

Next, a dismantling of the argument’s structure.

To say that gold makes a good money because it has some other uses (jewelry for the Ancients, electronics also for modern society) is to cite competing non-monetary uses! Do you really find it convincing to hear someone say “Y is a good X because its useful for non-X” or “Let’s trade with this substance instead of putting it to these other uses”? Consider some of the implications:

  • If the other uses become more highly valued than facilitation of trade, your commodity money will disappear from circulation.
  • Those other uses have to compete with use as money, making them have a higher price than they otherwise would.

Wouldn’t the world be better off to use that gold industrially or culturally rather than sequester it away in a vault? Cryptocoins can help with that liberation, for they have no competing uses. By explicit design, their highest value use is to facilitate trade.

Furthermore, under the theory of intrinsic value: the more competing uses a substance has, the better a money it becomes. Ridiculous! The very structure of the intrinsic value argument undermines what it attempts to buttress.

Cognitive Bias in Artificial Intelligence

I believe that artificial intelligence will suffer from cognitive biases, just as humans do. They might be altogether different kinds of bias, I won’t speculate about the details. I came to this conclusion by reading “Thinking Fast and Slow” by psychologist Daniel Kahneman, which proposes the brain has two modes of analysis: a “snap judgement” or “first impression” system and a more methodical or calculating system. Often we engage the quick system out of computational laziness. Why wouldn’t a machine do the same?

Researchers in machine learning already take careful steps to avoid many biases: data collection bias, overfitting, initial connection bias in the neural net, etc. But, I haven’t yet heard of any addressing computation biases in the resulting neural net. I think precursors of biased behavior have been observed already, but was explained away as being present in the input data or as resulting from the reward function during training, or some other statistical inadequacy.

Let me give a simplified example (and admittedly poor example for my argument) of cognitive bias present in humans and reflect on why it would be difficult to filter out such bias in a machine learning algorithm.

In the Muller-Lyer Illusion, which consists of a pair of arrows with fins pointing away or toward the center. Each shaft has the same length, but one appears longer. As a human familiar with this illusion, I will report that the shafts have equal length. Yet, subjectively, I do indeed perceive them as being different. My familiarity with the illusion allows me to report accurate information, lying about my subjective experience.

Now suppose that we train a neural net to gauge linear distances. And we have a way of asking it whether the lines in the Muller-Lyer diagram have the same length. What will it report? Well that depends, being a machine it might have a better mechanism for measuring lines directly in pixels and thus be immune to the extraneous information presented by the fins on the ends of those lines. But, humans ought to have that functionality as well on the cellular sensory level, yet we don’t. But, if the Muller-Lyer Illusion doesn’t fool the neural net, does a different picture confuse it? So far, yes, such things happen: the ML categorizes incorrectly when a human wouldn’t. We tend to interpret this as a one-off “mistake” rather than a “bias”. But the researchers succumb to evidence bias: they have only one example of incorrect categorization and they don’t perform a follow-up investigation into whether that example represents a whole class, demonstrating a cognitive bias in the neural net.

Now suppose the researcher do perform the diligence necessary and discover a cognitive bias. They generate new examples and retrain the net. Now it performs correct categorization for those examples. Have they really removed the bias at a fundamental level? or does the net now have a corrective layer, like I do? I presume the answer here depends on the computation capacity of the net: simple nets will have been retrained, while more complex ones might only have trained a fixer circuit, which identifies the image as being a specific kind of illusion. Thus, the more capable the neural net, the more likely it starts looking like a human: with a first impression followed by a second guess.

How ought research approach this problem? Should the biases get identified one at a time and subsequently be removed with additional training? Due to the large number of biases (c.f. all of Less Wrong, or  this list of cognitive biases), I think that approach doesn’t scale well. Especially considering that biases result from cognitive architecture and trained neural nets differ from human brains, I think the biases in ML will be new to us. Those should be exciting discoveries! I propose training with multiple adversarial nets, each trying to confuse the categorizer. This approach contains architectural symmetry, so it probably won’t work for biases that result from differences in wet-ware vs. hard-ware computation. Those should be even more interesting discoveries!

Humans clearly have a large reliance on contextual clues and the whole point of investing in ML is to capture and replicate that level of cognition. But contextual clues can mislead as easily as they help. So ML ought to have cognitive bias, as humans do, but very likely different kinds. Efforts to train out that bias might even be met with repulsion. Humans feel comfort with the familiar, so cognition which has our biases removed should feel viscerally unwelcome. For example, robots which lack biases associated with empathy will be perceived as sociopathic.

Your vote doesn’t count, but it does matter.

Under their current political system, the American chattel have a “civic duty” to voice their opinion about who they want as a representative. Every 4 years potential presidents spend billions on campaigns to excite the plebeians to “get out and vote!” to “make their voice heard!”. That money would certainly have more impact if spent on the actual causes that Team Red and Team Blue claim to care about. Rather than offer direct assistance, both parties choose instead to promulgate the most basic falsehood of possible: that your vote counts in the national election for president. Nothing excites people more than sports that matter least.

Let’s count the ways that the system ensures your vote does not count.

First, gerrymandered districts ensure predictable voting outcomes. Politicians regularly carve up their constituency in ways designed to support the current power balance, usually to protect the incumbent. From the national perspective, these districts make predictable state outcomes, whether Red or Blue.

Second, either others outnumber your vote when you hold the minority opinion or you vote with the tide. “In either case, your vote does not decide the outcome. In all of American history, a single vote has never determined the outcome of a presidential election”[Reason, 2012].

Third, the Electoral College can ignore the popular vote. “There is no national election for president, only separate state elections. For a candidate to become president, he or she must win enough state elections to garner a majority of electoral votes.”[Walbert, 2004]. Electoral delegates have no obligation to vote the same way as the popular vote of the state they represent, but they usually remain faithful.

Fourth, in the event that a state doesn’t have a clear position, the Supreme Court might decide. In 2000, the state of Florida did not have a clear preference, even after multiple recounts. When hearing the lawsuit over whether the recounts should continue, the Supreme Court accepted the de-facto power to decide the outcome of the election.

Fifth, Congress can decide. According to the rules of the Electoral College, “If no candidate wins a majority of the electoral votes or if the top two candidates are tied, the House of Representatives selects a president from among the five candidates with the most votes.”[Walbert, 2004]. According to this rule, Libertarian Gary Johnson has a chance in 2016 if he can win his home state of New Mexico [Wilson, 2016].

Now I’ve given reasons why your vote doesn’t count, let me address why it does matter.

South Africa endured many years of violence under the Apartheid regime. Many people and countries worldwide boycotted Apartheid, but the US government insisted on supporting the Apartheid regime, saying that while the US abhorred Apartheid, the regime was the legitimate government of South Africa. Then the Apartheid regime held another election. No more than 7% of South Africans voted. Suddenly everything changed. No longer could the US or anyone else say that the Apartheid regime had the consent of the governed. That was when the regime began to make concessions. Suddenly the ANC, formerly considered to be a terrorist group trying to overthrow a legitimate government, became freedom fighters against an illegitimate government. It made all the difference in the world, something that decades more of violence could never have done.

In Cuba, when Fidel Castro’s small, ragged, tired band were in the mountains, the dictator Batista held an election (at the suggestion of the US, by the way). Only 10% of the population voted. Realizing that he had lost the support of 90% of the country, Batista fled. Castro then, knowing that he had the support of 90% of the country, proceeded to bring about a true revolution.

In Haiti, when the US and US-sponsored regimes removed the most popular party from the ballot, in many places only 3% voted. The US had to intervene militarily, kidnap Aristide, and withhold aid after the earthquake to continue to control Haiti, but nobody familiar with the situation thought that the US-backed Haitian government had the consent of the governed or was legitimate.


You’ve Got to Stop Voting by Mark E. Smith

Whether your candidate has a chance or not, your participation in the vote directly demonstrates your “consent to be governed”. The politicians have a system of elaborate and arcane rules, which they deliberately devised to disenfranchise your voice. The political class cares far more about you checking a box than they do about which box you check.

“Boycotting elections alone will not oust the oligarchy, but it is the only proven non-violent way to delegitimize a government.”[Smith, 2012].

Notes: Market Failure: An argument both for and against government (David Friedman)

I just attended the Young American’s for Liberty state convention yesterday in order to hear the venerable David Friedman speak. Below are my notes highlighting the main points of the talk. You may recognize some examples and positions if you’ve been following his work.

Economists studying market failure make legitimate arguments against laisse-faire, but those arguments make a stronger case against government. Let’s define market failure as those circumstances in which individual rationality doesn’t lead to global rationality. For example, suppose we were part of an army standing on the battle field. I think, there’s only a minuscule chance that it affects the battle if I defect, and I will almost surely live as the others delay the opposition by fighting. All of us execute that logic, we all run, and the opposition kills us. To take another example, I am warmed greatly by burning coal and only make a minuscule contribution to the London fog. But, it’s possible (though not always), to engineer around the failure with a change of the rules. For example, the arab’s deadlocked in the open desert making no progress to the nearby oasis as they insist on winning the “who’s got the slowest camel” competition. Economists largely assume that people act in their own rational self-interest and that’s generally the case.

But what about Public Goods? (aside: The government often produces private goods, such as the post, while many public goods are produced privately, such as education and libraries.) Let’s define a public good as one that’s open to consumption, where the producer cannot capture payment from the consumer. For example, the beauty of the Sears Tower, listening to an unencrytped radio broadcast, or watching a TV program. For some cases, the market arrived at a clever solution: couple the public good (radio program) with a public bad (advertisement) and let the baddies subsidize the good for the enjoyment of all.

There are often externalities, in both directions. Some the costs outweigh the benefit and others where the cost is less than the benefit but the producer can’t collect enough to make it worth the effort. For example, take a resturant, a movie theater, and a store. It might not be worth running any individual enterprise, as they impose foot traffic on neighbors (negative externality). But if they occur together, say in a mall, then the traffic is mutually beneficial to all stores (externality becomes positive) and the rent for a shopwindow captures some of that.

Not all problems are solveable with laisse-faire and the market result is often less than ideal (comparison to the ideal is how the market ‘failed’ even when the outcome was considered ‘good enough’ by the people). With perfect information, you might be able to obtain the ideal, but we are in very short supply of good dictators.

Democracy also has its failure modes. For example, voters should be knowledgeable and informed when they cast their ballots. But proposals are seldom transparent. For example, the Farm Bill is never advertised as a money transfer program. Plus, in a representative system, the voter has a double-indirection problem. First they must know how good/bad each bill is and then they have to know how the candidates voted. Often that’s unknown, because the candidate is new (actually, all upcoming bills are unknown). Given that the chances of changing the election are slim, how much should a voter invest in becoming informed? Not much, they should be rationally ignorant, with two exceptions. One, the think politics is fun and do it out of intrinsic interest and two, they have influence or represent a special interest and have a high stake in the result. In this market, we see concentrated special interests winning benefits over dispersed victims.

What about long term planning? In the market, why should I plant black walnut trees which won’t bear nuts until I’m long dead? Well, ten years from now I can sell them! to a person that doesn’t want to wait as long. In turn, they could sell years later to a still more impatient person. But the transfer needs strong and secure property right. I must expect that the field is still mine to sell after ten years. Politicians, in contrast, have very insecure property rights. They will often be out of office before the benefits of a bill become evident, and it might be the other party is in office at that time and claims all credit! So they have a strong aversion to paying large amounts now when the benefits are far away in the future. You can see that their rhetoric does not reflect their actual behavior, because they often promise without making delivery in that uncertain future.

So politicians tend to 1. Promote policies that sound good on the surface (easy to advertise), 2. enact bills that benefit special, concentrated interests at the expense of dispersed victims, and 3. take short-term actions. Finally, and what’s worse, they make decisions that have very widespread effects (externalities) without knowing the outcome. For example, a panel of judges making a decision about a vaccination program (for polio?) treated an annual recurring cost as a one-time payment, mis-pricing the program by a factor of 40, negatively affecting thousands of people.

We must conclude then, that Market Failure is structurally endemic to Politics and the theory of market failure is a better predictor of government behavior than it is of free market behavior.

The conclusion generalizes to everyday life. For example, for those with a spouse, who does dishes after dinner? There are two options: 1. one cooks, the other cleans, and 2. the same person cooks and cleans. Everyone chooses option 2, because then the cooker controls how much cleaning takes place (makes a meal with fewer dishes). Also, this is why we tell children to clean up their own mess, rather than the messes of others.

There’s also the silent student problem. When the instructor asks “does every one get it?” they never get a response. Mostly, because the cost of asking is to look dumb in front of everyone (but, rationally, in a large classroom, there must be others who didn’t understand), but also because the benefits of asking will be dispersed to everyone present (they might do better on the exam). One solution is to use a button on the floor, which can be inconspicuously pressed, activating a signal at the back of the class visible to the teacher, but not the students.

Or economics and law. Suppose a proposal that makes armed robbery a capital crime, assuming murder is already a capital crime. Many people might be for it, as “being tough” and providing a strong dis-incentive for armed robbery. But the economist will ask: Do you really want all armed robbers to murder their victims? Because if the cost of robbery is the same as robbery + murder, then I, as a robber, will surely kill my victims for the punishment (cost) is no different and there is a benefit that the dead won’t identify me to the police.

Questions.

What should we do? Given that rationally ignorant voters make decisions on freely available information, politicians complicate the issue by advertising bills with plausible deniability. For example, the auto tariff is about protecting jobs and hurting foreigners. The auto-workers union doesn’t ask for a bill that’s a direct transfer payment. How should we respond? One: change the body of free information. Spread more accurate information and ideas. Two: create alternatives. Run a business that competes, showing that the government-provided solution isn’t any good (quality or quantity).

What about replacing the government entirely? Dealt with this in 3rd part of Machinery of Freedom, discussing private security insurance firms that operate under the discipline of repeated interaction. Customers have their choice of firm.

With increasing productivity, what about ensuring work/jobs? First, we should think of jobs and workers as two distinct numbers, and then notice they are always very close to each other. Sometimes apart (depression era) sometimes close, but very strongly correlated (both increased over the last century). This implies they are in an equilibrium situation, so we should not worry too much. Also, look at the fixes: the racism inherent in the minimum wage (historical union). And be careful: if you give the government power to do XYZ, how will they *actually* use that power?

What about education? School voucher program implies that most schools would be comparable in quality. That’s not really different from being centrally managed. Instead, if we value diversity, we should remove single organizational administration and control, we should decentralize.

What about Rothbard and 100% reserves? It’s actually not desirable for a bank to have 100% backing, especially if it has other liquidate-able reserves. It could then, when faced with a run, sell the other assets in exchange for the backing material (e.g. gold or silver) and make good on the original agreement. Personally, would prefer some electronic, anonymous, cash-like system.

What about the incentives to incarcerate faced by private prison operators? Well, those same incentives are faced by state-run prisons. It sounds good to be “tough on crime” and the taxpayers foot the bill. Refer to David Skarbek’s book, The Social Order of the Underworld: How Prison Gangs Govern the American Penal System, to see how even outlaws have created an ordered society. Also, read Poul Anderson The Margin of Profit for an answer on “how to get people to stop doing bad things” (answ: make it unprofitable), and my book Law’s Order: What Economics Has To Do With Law and Why It Matters for an examination on the costs and benefits of a property system.

Notes: Problems with Libertarianism

David Friedman gave a talk Problems with Libertarianism: Hard Problems (and how to avoid them).

  1. What rights do you have against a criminal?
    If your only right is to re-claim the stolen property, then at-worst the thief breaks even.
    To what extent can we meter out determent punishment.
    What’s the factor of retribution, why 2x? not 3x or 1.5x?
    What if you only catch 1/10th of the thieves? Then 10x?
      But that pushing the guy caught for the crimes of those not caught.
      Also, the number of people caught is a function of how much spent to try to catch.
    What if a mistake is made? How much trouble to avoid making them?
  2. What are you entitled to do to defend your rights?
    Capital punishment for petty theft?
  3. Human shield problem.
    Can you shoot back, and risk killing the innocent shield?
    Can the voluntary defense fund aim nuclear weapons at Moscow?
    Possibly killing innocent victims (more so than you) of the Soviet Union?
    Bad guys aren’t libertarian, and don’t care about trespassing when advancing their troops.
    If it’s acceptable to place run roughshod over innocents in attacking the aggressor, then it’s acceptable to draft.
  4. Absolute property rights.
    Trespassing photons across absentee-held land.
    You think they don’t damage, but I, the owner, gets to decide that.
    Allow you to breath in, but not out, because I don’t like the CO2.
  5. Distribute the risk of injury should I crash my airplane?
    I get the benefit of flight, at cost to you without your permission.
  6. Property in land, not derived from owning self+labor.
    I could walk across before you build up the house and path, so my use is not in conflict with your labor.
  7. Very large part of land in the world is stolen.
  8. Public good problem.
    If something is desirable, then market will provide. Can only say Maybe.
    def: good that producer cannot control who gets it, ex: radio broadcast
    Combine the good (pos value to customer + pos cost of production) with another public good (neg value to customer + neg cost of production), ex: adverts
    What about national defense? (defense against nations) Hard to stop missile in flight by determining if target has paid for defense.
    Is answer to aggress the funds, or to surrender?
    soln: Assuming problem doesn’t exist.
    Soviets have no interest in attacking, only have tanks to prevent us from doing so.
    soln: Somewhere there’s a proof that market will provide.
    Nobody’s found it.
    soln: It’s a lifeboat problem.
    Still have to find the answer, we do live on a spaceship after all.
    soln: The is-ought dichotomy.
    But then in some way you’re defending the ability to do whatever is necessary.
    soln: Pooling money.
    The good is worth X but whether I spend is only a fraction of the funds and I receive the benefits regardless.
  9. Privatizing the government property.
    soln: sell it. But if government doesn’t own it, what right have they to sell it?

You can also avoid the problems by changing the subject.

Bidding to establish Terms of a Contract

As a preliminary, I feel obligated to mention that writing a contract only protects yourself on paper. The real world has such complexity, and with innumerate contingencies, that any contract will fail to enumerate them all. Establishing an explicit contract often also cements distrust between parties, due to its impersonal nature. The contract just gives a written record of what the parties agreed to, so that, should the end up in arbitration, others can more readily see the terms of the agreement. Because of these factors, writing a contract is a costly affair.. So, what should go into it?

Suppose two parties, even after recognizing the costs, still wish two write a contract. They agree on many standard items and write them down (or borrow them from a template), but the parties still have some remaining details about which they disagree. Each has an interest in investing a some time to sort out these details in order to avoid unpredictable future conflict. But how shall they obtain an agreement on what actually gets written down?

I thought of one approach: holding a silent auction. For every issue on which they have a disagreement, they can write down all the mutually-exclusive options and hold a silent Vickrey auction.